HIP-3 & HIP-4 Explained
Permissionless perps (live) and prediction markets (testnet) unpacked — how they work, what they cost, what's actually running, and what they mean for Hyperliquid vault depositors.
In this explainer
- HIP-3 vs HIP-4 at a glance
- HIP-3: builder-deployed perpetuals
- How HIP-3 works (500K stake, auction, 50/50 fees)
- What's live 6 months in
- What HIP-3 means for vaults
- HIP-4: outcome contracts / prediction markets
- How HIP-4 works (0/1 settlement, USDH, unified margin)
- HIP-4 vs Polymarket vs Kalshi
- What HIP-4 means for vaults
- The everything exchange thesis
- What to watch if you deposit into vaults
- FAQ
HIP-3 vs HIP-4 at a glance
| HIP-3 | HIP-4 | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Permissionless perpetual markets | Binary outcome / prediction contracts |
| Status | Live on mainnet (Oct 13, 2025) | Testnet (Feb 2, 2026). Mainnet: within 2026. |
| Deployer stake | 500,000 HYPE | 1,000,000 HYPE (phase 2) |
| Leverage | Deployer-set per market | None — 1x fully collateralized |
| Settlement | USDC (mark-to-market PnL) | USDH (settles to 0 or 1 at expiry) |
| Fee split | 50% deployer / 50% protocol | TBD (will mirror HIP-3 structure) |
| Margin | Shared with other HL perps | Shared with perps and spot |
| Asset types | Crypto, stocks, commodities, forex, indices | Real-world events (price, election, weather, etc.) |
HIP-3: Builder-deployed perpetuals Live
HIP-3 is the protocol change that turned Hyperliquid from a curated-listing venue into a permissionless perp factory. Before HIP-3, only the Hyperliquid team could list new perp markets. After HIP-3, any user who meets the stake and quality bar can launch a market and earn half the trading fees on it.
The practical effect over the first 6 months: Hyperliquid stopped being a "crypto perp DEX" and started being a general-purpose derivatives L1. Felix Protocol launched the first non-crypto perp market — a Tesla stock perp — on November 13, 2025. That list has since expanded across equities, commodities, FX, and long-tail crypto that would never have made a curated list.
How HIP-3 works, in plain English
- Stake. The deployer locks up 500,000 HYPE. At April 2026 HYPE prices, that's a serious commitment — the stake is real skin in the game, not a formality.
- Deploy. The first 3 markets are free. The deployer sets the parameters: oracle, leverage cap, funding formula, initial margin, liquidation schedule. They can run perps on literally any asset with a resolvable oracle.
- Auction. Additional markets beyond the first 3 go through an on-chain auction. Deployers bid for slots; popular deployers pay more for premium listings.
- Earn. 50% of all trading fees on the deployed markets flow to the deployer. The other 50% accrues to the protocol (HLP + HYPE holders).
- Slash. If the deployer misbehaves — bad oracle, downtime, parameter exploit — validators can slash up to the full stake. Deployer risk is real.
What's actually live, 6 months in
HIP-3 has moved faster than most protocol upgrades. A non-exhaustive map of what's trading:
- Stock perps. Tesla (first, Nov 2025), followed by NVDA, AAPL, and a handful of other large-caps — all deployed by third-party builders, not the HL team.
- Long-tail crypto. Dozens of new altcoin perps that wouldn't have been listed under the old curation regime. Some have traction, most don't.
- Commodities + FX. Gold, oil, and major FX pairs showing up on specialised deployer shelves.
- Index-style baskets. A few "sector" perps (e.g., "top-10 AI stocks" composite) started appearing in Q1 2026.
Not every HIP-3 market has real liquidity. Many are deployer vanity launches with zero volume. The pattern is the same as listing on any open marketplace — a handful of deployers drive most of the volume, the rest is long-tail noise.
What HIP-3 means for Hyperliquid vaults
Three structural shifts for vault depositors:
1. More strategy surface for leader vaults. Market-making, funding capture, and basis trades previously limited to ~100 curated perps can now reach across stocks, commodities, and FX. Leader vaults that specialised in one narrow crypto strategy now have a wider menu. Expect a new generation of multi-asset leader vaults in 2026.
2. Thin-liquidity tail risk is back. The JELLY and FARTCOIN incidents happened on a curated listing set. A permissionless market can be significantly thinner. HIP-3 includes deployer slashing as a safeguard, but a whale attacking a low-liquidity book is still a cascade risk to HLP. We expect more JELLY-style events per year now — smaller individually, more frequent.
3. Leader vaults can deploy their own markets. A vault running a specific strategy (e.g., "gold basis") can now deploy the exact perp it needs to run that strategy, rather than waiting for HL curation. Some of the most interesting leader vaults in Q1 2026 are doing exactly this — deploying HIP-3 markets that match their edge.
HIP-4: Outcome contracts / prediction markets Testnet
HIP-4 is the next big protocol extension: native prediction markets, live on testnet since February 2, 2026, and scheduled for mainnet "within 2026". The thesis is that binary outcome contracts — YES / NO bets on real-world events — are the third major derivative class after perps and spot, and they should live in the same margin account as everything else a trader holds.
This is the move that takes Hyperliquid from "perp DEX + spot" to "everything exchange": a single venue where you can hold a BTC perp, USDC spot, HYPE position, and a 2026 election contract, all cross-margined.
How HIP-4 works
- Binary contracts. Each market is a YES/NO contract on a specific resolvable event.
"BTC > $200K by end of Q2 2026", for example. The contract settles to either1(YES happened) or0(it didn't). - Bounded trading range. Before resolution, the contract trades between 0 and 1. A price of 0.62 on the YES side means the market implies ~62% probability.
- Fully collateralised at 1x. No leverage. You post the full notional upfront. Max loss per contract is your stake; max gain is the complementary amount. This is why HIP-4 positions can share margin with leveraged perps safely — they can't blow up the whole account.
- USDH settlement. HIP-4 contracts settle in USDH, Hyperliquid's native stablecoin. This is Hyperliquid deliberately routing prediction-market volume through USDH to bootstrap native stablecoin liquidity.
- Unified margin. For the first time on HL, a trader can hold perps + spot + prediction contracts in a single cross-margined account. Natural offsetting is possible — e.g., you're short ETH perps and long a "ETH finishes H1 above $5K" contract, and the margin engine understands the correlation.
HIP-4 vs Polymarket vs Kalshi
| HIP-4 | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | Hyperliquid L1 orderbook | Polygon AMM | Regulated CFTC exchange |
| Settlement | USDH | USDC | USD (fiat rails) |
| Matching | Central limit orderbook | AMM + orderbook hybrid | CLOB |
| Margin with other assets | Yes — shared account | No | No |
| KYC | None | Light | Full |
| Leverage on adjacent positions | Yes (via perps in same account) | No | No |
The structural differentiator isn't "prediction markets on a DEX" — Polymarket already did that. It's shared margin with perps and spot. Nobody else has that. That's what makes HIP-4 interesting for professional traders and, downstream, for vault strategies.
What HIP-4 means for Hyperliquid vaults
Not much yet — mainnet isn't live. Once it is, expect:
- New vault categories. Prediction-market arbitrage vaults, event-hedging vaults, correlation-harvesting vaults that trade HIP-4 against perps.
- HLP income extension. HIP-4 trading fees will likely flow through the same HLP share mechanism as HIP-3, adding a new fee stream to HLP's base yield.
- Risk management changes. Unified margin is powerful but also means a bad prediction-market position can, in principle, affect margin on a perp position in the same account. HLP's risk model will need to treat cross-asset margin as a first-class thing.
- Selection risk for HIP-4 leader vaults. Prediction-market alpha is different from perp alpha. Leaders with 3-year basis-trading track records have zero track record on event contracts. Don't trust track-record transfer across asset classes.
The everything exchange thesis
Zoom out. HIP-3 + HIP-4 together turn Hyperliquid into something that doesn't really exist elsewhere in DeFi: a single L1 where perps, spot, equities, commodities, FX, and prediction markets all share an orderbook, a margin system, and a liquidity pool (HLP).
The strategic move is clear: every dollar of fee revenue on any of those asset classes ends up routed through the same HYPE-aligned fee structure. Deployers, HLP, and HYPE holders all compound on the breadth. The more asset classes live on HL, the more sticky the liquidity becomes, and the harder it is for a single-asset-class competitor to catch up.
For depositors, the thesis is: HLP's APR has multiple compounding new income streams in 2026 — HIP-3 perp fees, HIP-4 outcome-contract fees — on top of the existing orderbook and liquidation PnL. That's the bull case. The bear case is that permissionless markets add tail-risk surface faster than the risk-management tooling can keep up, and we see more JELLY-like drawdowns before the parameter tuning catches up.
What to watch if you deposit into vaults
- HIP-3 market concentration. How much of HLP's PnL is now tied to thin new HIP-3 markets? If the share rises above ~15-20% of total PnL variance, HLP's drawdown profile changes meaningfully.
- Deployer slashing events. If a deployer gets slashed, it's a signal the safeguards are working — but also that someone was adversarial. Track slashing frequency as an ecosystem-health metric.
- HIP-4 mainnet date. Once announced, expect a pre-launch HYPE run. Don't size up leader-vault deposits based on "HIP-4 will pump APR" — wait for actual fee data.
- USDH liquidity. HIP-4's settlement rail is USDH. USDH depegs or liquidity collapse would cascade into HIP-4 vaults; watch the USDH/USDC peg and HL's USDH reserves.
- Leader vault drift. Leaders who pivoted from crypto perps to HIP-3 stock perps are running different strategies now, even if the vault name didn't change. Don't trust a pre-HIP-3 90-day track record as predictive for a post-pivot vault.
Track HIP-3 market exposure on VaultVision
Every active Hyperliquid leader vault, with live risk score, thin-market concentration, and drawdown profile. Our risk model now weights HIP-3 exposure explicitly.
Open VaultVisionFAQ
What is HIP-3 in one sentence?
Permissionless perpetual market creation on Hyperliquid — anyone who stakes 500K HYPE can deploy their own perp market on any asset with a resolvable oracle.
What is HIP-4 in one sentence?
Native binary prediction markets on Hyperliquid — YES/NO contracts on real-world events that settle 0 or 1, fully collateralised, and share a margin account with perps and spot.
Is HIP-3 risky for HLP depositors?
Slightly riskier than pre-HIP-3 HL. Permissionless markets = more surfaces for tail events. HLP's drawdown profile now includes some exposure to thin HIP-3 markets. Still overall the safest vault on HL in our view, but not zero-risk.
When will HIP-4 launch on mainnet?
"Within 2026" — no specific date confirmed as of April 2026. Two-phase rollout: canonical team-curated markets first, permissionless deployment (1M HYPE stake) second.
Can I trade HIP-4 outcome contracts today?
Only on testnet. Mainnet is pending. If you want to experiment, Hyperliquid's testnet has BTC and HYPE binary markets live.
Does HIP-3 reduce HLP's JELLY-style tail risk?
No — arguably increases it slightly, because permissionless means less curation. The mitigation is deployer slashing plus OI limits, not the absence of the risk category.
Are HIP-3 stock perps legal?
They exist on a permissionless protocol with no KYC. Whether trading them is legal depends on your jurisdiction. HL doesn't advise. This is the same trade-off as every other HL product: more freedom, zero regulatory backstop.
Will HIP-3 and HIP-4 pump HYPE?
Depends on adoption. HIP-3 generated a small but real HYPE rally on launch; HIP-4 produced a 10-14% move on the announcement. More protocol fee revenue → more HYPE accrual. We don't do price predictions, but the mechanism is clearly HYPE-accretive if volume materialises.
Related reading
- How HLP Works: Mechanics, Risks & Real Numbers — full HLP breakdown including the tail-risk events HIP-3 inherits.
- Is Hyperliquid Safe? 2026 Review — protocol, custody, and trader-side safety dimensions.
- Hyperliquid Yield Guide 2026 — HLP vs leader vaults vs HYPE staking, with fee-stream breakdown.
- VaultVision Risk Score Formula — how we now factor HIP-3 thin-market exposure into risk scoring.
- Hyperliquid TVL, Explained — how HIP-3 changes the TVL composition story.
- Glossary — quick definitions of HIP-3, HIP-4, HLP, USDH, and related terms.